No doubt they are attention grabbing, but rising resale HDB flat prices are not a new trend. In 2024, prices of resale flats rose by 9.6% on the year; this growth was also accompanied by an estimated 28,000 to 29,000 transactions, which represents a healthy increase over the approximately 26,000 units sold in 2023.

ERA Singapore also forecasts that the Resale Price Index will continue to trend upwards this year, but at a more moderate rate of 3 to 6% year-on-year (y-o-y). HDB resale transactions are also expected to dip slightly to approximately 26,000 to 27,000 units for the full year. 

So, what’s causing this anticipated rise in prices for 2025? The answer lies in the limited availability of resale HDB flats available for purchase on the secondary market. 

A quick glance at the estimated number of HDB units that have either met OR are about to fulfil their Minimum Occupation Period (MOP) shows that approximately 11,900 units reached MOP completion in 2024. However, this number is expected to decline by 41.6%, dropping to just 6,974 units in 2025. This would likely result in a more competitive resale market where prices are pushed higher amid sustained demand. 

Similarly, over the next five years, resale HDB prices are likely to face upward pressure as the number of MOP-completed flats falls from 20,800 units (2020–2024) to just 12,900 units (2025–2029).

This supply-driven price momentum also coincides with a steadily rising number of million-dollar HDB flats. The volume of seven-figure HDB transactions rose from 82 units in 2020 to 1,035 units last year – and it is expected to grow further in 2025 as the pool of MOP-completed flats continues to shrink. 

Still, with the continued introduction of new Build-to-Order flats offering buyers more options, along with increasing price resistance, this would encourage a more moderated pace of price growth, allowing for appreciation while still maintaining overall stability in the HDB market.